When government have large debt, investors must be particularly vigilant about future inflationary spikes when lending money. In this excerpt from Financial Recovery in a Fragile World, a soon-to-be-published book from Knowledge Bureau, co-author Robert Ironside explains why below:
Any form of taxation is a transfer of purchasing power from Party A to Party B. With the ëinflation tax', the transfer of purchasing power is from creditors to debtors. In Canada and the U.S., as in most other countries, the largest debtor is the Government.
The inflation tax works like this: The Government issues a fixed coupon, long-term bond. Let's assume that the bond in question has a $1,000 face value, a 4% coupon and ten years to maturity. The bond sells in the market at par, based on current inflation expectations of 2%. The bond investor is thus expecting a 2% real return as compensation for deferring consumption. After the bond is issued, the Central Bank allows several years of 6% inflation. At the bond's maturity date, the bond investor receives a payment of $1,000 in exchange for her bond, but due to inflation, the $1,000 received will purchase a much smaller basket of goods and services than the $1,000 that was initially used to purchase the bond.
There has been an effective transfer of wealth from the bond investor to the bond issuer. Although the bond's coupon of 4% compensated for a portion of the loss in purchasing power, it is not sufficient to totally offset the loss of purchasing power due to the unexpected inflation.
The unexpected inflation has led to a confiscation of wealth that is every bit as real as an income tax, but most investors are never aware that a portion of their wealth has been expropriated.
It is for this reason that inflation has always been used by weak governments that have become over-indebted. As long as the government's debt is held by the domestic population and denominated in the domestic currency, any government can inflate its way back to fiscal solvency. The holders of long-term government bonds become the unwilling (and often unwitting) taxpayers who make it possible.
A Government that can print its own currency and that issues debt denominated in its own currency which will never default. It will simply redeem its debt with a depreciated currency that will purchase fewer goods and services than it formerly did.
The U.S. government, for example, would only default on its debt if it were not allowed to issue more debt (as occurred during the summer of 2011) or if the Central Bank refused to purchase debt issued by the government. As long as the government has the ability to create new debt and as long as the Central Bank is willing to monetize the debt of the government, the U.S. government will never default on its debt, although the holders of that debt may suffer significant losses in wealth.
This does not mean that the purchase of long Government bonds is a bad idea. It just means that a bond investor must always remain vigilant to possible changes in inflation that might erode the real (or purchasing power) value of the bond's face value.
ADDITIONAL EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES: Financial Recovery and Elements of Real Wealth Management