Budget surpluses will disappear, real GDP growth will stagnate but then recover nicely by 2010 and both inflation and interest rates will drop in 2009 according to this economic update. The Canadian dollar is expected to recover to exceed its 2008 level as well, by 2011. In fact, the private sector forecasts, shown below are indicative of a full recovery in a couple of years, as per the chart below. That's significantly good news.
Average Private Sector Forecasts: November 27, 2008 Economic Statement, Canada
Average
2008
2009
2010
2011ñ13
(per cent, unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP growth
February 2008 budget
1.7
2.4
2.9
2.6
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
0.6
0.3
2.6
2.9
GDP inflation
February 2008 budget
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.6
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
3.8
0.5
1.8
2.2
Nominal GDP growth
February 2008 budget
3.5
4.3
4.7
4.2
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
4.4
0.8
4.4
5.1
Nominal GDP level (billions of dollars)
February 2008 budget1
1,590
1,659
1,738
1,890
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
1,603
1,615
1,687
1,870
3-month treasury bill rate
February 2008 budget
3.2
3.8
4.5
4.5
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
2.4
1.9
2.7
4.2
10-year government bond rate
February 2008 budget
3.6
4.2
4.8
5.0
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
3.7
3.7
4.2
5.0
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation
February 2008 budget
1.5
1.9
2.0
2.1
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
2.6
1.7
1.9
2.1
Oil price level (US dollars per barrel)
February 2008 budget
82.1
79.8
82.3
77.5
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
102.5
72.0
79.0
91.1
Exchange rate (US cents/C$)
February 2008 budget
98.0
95.5
95.5
96.2
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
94.9
85.6
88.7
95.8
Unemployment rate
February 2008 budget
6.3
6.4
6.2
6.0
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
6.1
6.9
6.7
6.2
U.S. real GDP growth
February 2008 budget
1.5
2.4
3.0
2.7
November 2008 Economic and Fiscal Statement
1.4
-0.4
2.1
3.0
1 Nominal GDP levels have been adjusted to reflect 2008 revisions to Canada's National Income and Expenditure Accounts.Source: Department of Finance survey of private sector forecasters.
Risks and Uncertainties
The government reports that since the February 26, 2008 Federal Budget, revised projects have reduced revenues and certain expenses. These figures provide an important glimpse at the fallout expected from the financial crisis.
Revenues are now projected to be $3.2 billion lower in 2008ñ09 and $8.9billion lower in 2009ñ10, citing the following reasons:
ìThe downward revisions reflect both the weaker-than-expected 2007ñ08 results and the weaker economic outlook. The downward revisions in 2008ñ09 are driven by revisions to the corporate income tax forecast. For 2009ñ10, all major revenue streams have been revised down, reflecting the weaker economic outlook.î
On the good news side, total program expenses are also expected to be lower in 2008ñ09 than projected in Budget 2008, largely as a result of lower-than-expected direct program expenses.
However, in 2009ñ10, program expenses are higher than projected as it is anticipated there will be increased Employment Insurance costsóindicating more job losses are to comeóand elderly benefits. Equalization costs to provinces will also be higher than projected in the budget.
Revenue Outlook as per the November 27, 2008 Economic Statement:
Actual
Projection
2007ñ2008
2008ñ2009
2009ñ2010
2010ñ2011
2011ñ2012
2012ñ2013
2013ñ2014
(millions of dollars)
Tax revenues
Income tax
Personal income tax
113,063
118,685
121,460
127,365
135,445
143,290
151,330
Corporate income tax
40,628
34,080
33,090
35,390
35,750
36,765
38,950
Other income tax
5,693
5,815
5,525
6,015
6,220
6,510
6,860
Total income tax
159,384
158,580
160,070
168,770
177,410
186,560
197,145
Excise taxes/duties
Goods and services tax
29,920
26,840
27,640
29,060
30,485
31,895
33,465
Customs import duties
3,903
4,200
4,355
4,640
4,940
5,240
5,530
Other excise taxes/duties
10,384
10,770
10,520
10,230
10,095
10,285
10,225
Total excise taxes/duties
44,207
41,815
42,520
43,930
45,520
47,420
49,220
Total tax revenues
203,591
200,395
202,590
212,700
222,930
233,980
246,365
Employment Insurance premium revenues
16,558
16,500
17,350
17,675
17,670
18,110
18,690
Other revenues
22,271
22,135
28,550
28,525
30,340
31,840
32,205
Total budgetary revenues
242,420
239,030
248,490
258,895
270,940
283,930
297,260
Per cent of GDP
Personal income tax
7.4
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.7
Corporate income tax
2.6
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
Goods and services tax
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
Total tax revenues
13.3
12.5
12.5
12.6
12.5
12.5
12.6
Employment Insurance premium revenues
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
Other revenues
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
Total
15.8
14.9
15.4
15.3
15.2
15.2
15.2
Total absent Insured
Mortgage Purchase Program
15.8
14.9
15.2
15.2
15.1
15.0
15.0
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
The revised fiscal outlook confirms the disappearance of budgetary surpluses:
Summary of Changes in the Fiscal Outlook Since the February 2008 Budget
Actual
Projection
2007ñ08
2008ñ09
2009ñ10
(billions of dollars)
February 2008 budget underlying surplus
10.2
2.3
1.3
Impact of economic and fiscal developments
Budgetary revenues
Personal income tax
0.5
0.3
-4.0
Corporate income tax
-1.8
-2.8
-3.5
Other income tax
-0.2
-0.1
-0.6
Goods and services tax
-0.8
-0.7
-1.2
Other revenues
0.1
0.0
0.4
Total revenues
-2.1
-3.2
-8.9
Program expenses1
Major transfers to persons
0.1
-0.4
-1.2
Major transfers to other levels of government2
-0.4
-0.1
-0.4
Direct program expenses
2.0
1.3
0.4
Total program expenses
1.7
0.9
-1.1
Public debt charges
-0.2
0.2
2.8
Total economic and fiscal developments
-0.6
-2.1
-7.2
Impact of actions in this Statement
0.6
6.0
Revised surplus
9.6
0.8
0.1
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.1 A positive number implies a decrease in spending and an improvement in the budgetary balance. A negative number implies an increase in spending and a deterioration in the budgetary balance.2 Includes putting Equalization on a sustainable growth path.