The evidence is mounting: Canadians are taking a dark view of 2012. Shaken by global events and a battered U.S. economy, individuals, businesses and governments are expecting slower growth, prolonged belt-tightening and retrenchment. Rightly or wrongly, it seems pessimism reigns in 2012.
Last month, Pollara Strategic Insights surveyed 2,878 Canadians and found Canadians the most pessimistic they have been in the 16 years Pollara has done the survey. As Pollara chairman Michael Marzolini told the Economic Club last week, Canadians are "seriously concerned and worried.î
Pollara found:
ï 70% of Canadians feel Canada is still in recession, even though the recession in Canada was relatively short-lived. (Canada came out of recession in third quarter 2009.)
ï 80% believe it will take two years, if not three, for recovery to take hold of Canada's economy; only 20% expect a recovery in 2012.
ï 50% expect their household income to fall behind the cost of living.
ï 80% of Canadians say their overall financial situation is getting worse or holding steady; only 20% say they are getting ahead.
ï 80% do not expect the job market to improve in 2012.
"Canadians believe themselves to be under siege,î said Marzolini, "and they have entrenched accordingly in a return to basic economic survival issues.î
According to Marzolini, Canadians have a new hierarchy of economic priorities and concerns: "At first, these were oriented around their families and their personal financial situations. Now, they have expanded to include any government policies that affect their ability to make ends meet.î
Topping the concerns of 80% of Canadians is a rising cost of living. There is a pervasive fear that inflation will return in 2012 (60% of Canadians), fueled in part by higher taxes ó 65% of Canadians foresee higher taxes this year ó as governments at all levels come to terms with overspending. In fact, 72% of Canadians are concerned about the size of government debt.
Second concern is having enough money to retire. Only 14% of Canadians expect share values to improve in 2012 while 41% expect to see a huge loss in the value of their investments.
"Canadians have tightened their belts for three years,î Marzolini said. "They consider themselves financially brutalized. They are frustrated that the public sector, at all three levels, has yet to tighten its own belt.î
Whether that pessimism is justified or not, Canadian businesses are taking their cue from consumers. The Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey, released this week, found that 41% of the 100 businesses surveyed expects sales in 2012 to be less than in 2011; 22% say sales will stay the same and 37% expect greater sales. That puts the balance of opinion ó percentage of firms expecting faster growth minus percentage expecting slower growth ó into negative territory.
"Overall, the weak U.S. economic outlook, concerns about adverse effects from the situation in Europe and an expected slowing in household spending were among the factors dampening sales prospects,î the report explains.
When it comes to investment in machinery and equipment and employment in 2012, the businesses are more upbeat. The balance of opinion on investment in machinery and equipment continues to point toward increased spending over the next 12 months: 41% expect investment levels to be the same as last year, 40% expect to invest more and 19% less. Businesses, however, remain cautious. Says the report: "Intentions to increase investment are being supported by efforts to reduce costs, seize new opportunities or reposition through expansion.î
On the employment front, survey numbers indicate higher employment with the Prairies the main driver of growth: 41% expect employment to be the same, 40% intend to increase employment and only 9% foresee lower employment.
That businesses will increase spending, even modestly, is good news for the economy as governments set about curtailing their stimulus spending and start the long process of reducing deficits. In its 2011 Article IV review of Canada, the International Monetary Fund reported: "Staff projects growth to decelerate to around 2% on average in 2011 and 2012, constrained by weak external demand and ongoing fiscal adjustment. Private demand will remain the driving force behind growth, with investment expected to play a key role.î
The IMF report applauds the federal government's handling of the financial crisis and feels its fiscal consolidation is on schedule. But, it says, risks are tilted toward the downside. The "spilloverî effect of crises in Europe and the U.S. as well as domestic pressures arising from record household debt ó now more than 150% of disposable income ó and rising housing prices could throw the Canadian economic recovery off track.
"Should the recovery be accompanied by further sustained increases in mortgage debt as a share of disposable income spurred by low interest rates," says the IMF review, "a tightening of macroprudential policies by the government may be needed.î
It seems Canadians have every reason to be seriously concerned and worried as we move into 2012.
Additional Educational Resource: Financial Recovery in a Fragile World