Session 5: Portfolio Recovery Strategies with Richard Croft, Author

Richard presented a detailed view of the economies of the US and Canada as well as the Global world and, in particular, the crisis in Greece and the effect of the Emerging Markets. Three Key Points:

1. US is on verge of recession

a. Housing prices have not found a bottom

b. Unemployment remains high

c. Gold focused on US $ - will not rally until US economy stimulated with new capital

Solution: risk of double dip recession in US is low

2. Europe in Crisis

a. Greek default unavoidable

b. Risk of contagion

3. Emerging Markets

a. Dampened by inflation; property bubbles

b. Global growth depends on emerging markets stimulus at a time when they are pulling back

c. Growth rates forecasted for 2012 have declined significantly between April 2011 and October 2011

Richard ended with some solutions including the Portfolio Barbell (Need cash flow at one end, defensive plays in the middle and Growth on the other end)